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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

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GERMANY: Surging ahead of Euro Zon


The German economy is surging ahead much faster than any of its troubled neighbours. The struggling European Union can certainly consider it as its locomotive for the future. This article examines the major macroeconomic parameters in Germany’s recovery and seeks to examine how far it will be sustainable.
While a large part of Europe is still struggling to get out of the financial crisis, Germany has secured for itself a
much brighter future but mostly outside Europe. Germany has often been regarded as the major growth
driver in the EU and it may be worrying that Germany is deploying most of its capital outside the borders of
Europe in order to ensure a higher growth rate. Gross Domestic Product in Germany increased by 1.5% in the first quarter of 2011 over the last quarter. Germany had reached a historical high in June 2010 at 2.3% and a record low of -3.5% in March 2009. According to Chancellor Angela Merkel, German GDP will continue at +3.6% in 2011 as well.  (Source: tradingeconomics.com) Germany is a classic example of a “v” shaped recovery. However there is a debate over the forecasts for 2011 and 2012. The 3×3 recovery foreseen by some see a continuation of the 3% growth in 2011 as well as 2012.The alternative is labelled as a 3×2×1 forecast where the growth in 2011 is expected to be lower and even less in 2012.
TRADE: Growth Driver Germany came out of the economic recession much